Joan distributed an analysis of the 2020 Senate races (Not done by Joan, I don’t know who did this!). Take a look (scroll down) — this kind of analysis can help you decide how to allocate your donations.
Don’t forget: We will be supporting candidates on the down ballot in Pennsylvania through Sister District…so keep that in mind!
The Republican Senators whose seat is up for election this year are...
Alexander, Lamar - (R - TN) - retiring
Capito, Shelley Moore - (R - WV)
Cassidy, Bill - (R - LA)
Collins, Susan M. - (R - ME)
Cornyn, John - (R - TX)
Cotton, Tom - (R - AR)
Daines, Steve - (R - MT)
Enzi, Michael B. - (R - WY) - retiring
Ernst, Joni - (R - IA)
Gardner, Cory - (R - CO)
Graham, Lindsey - (R - SC)
Hyde-Smith, Cindy - (R - MS)
Inhofe, James M. - (R - OK)
Loeffler, Kelly - (R - GA)
McConnell, Mitch - (R - KY)
Perdue, David - (R - GA)
Risch, James E. - (R - ID)
Roberts, Pat - (R - KS) - retiring
Rounds, Mike - (R - SD)
Sasse, Ben - (R - NE)
Sullivan, Dan - (R - AK)
Tillis, Thom - (R - NC)
State of the Senate, 2020:
I have three categories of Senate races - the highest priority races (worth investing money and time in right now); the races that are stretching the map (worth investing money and watching them); and the less likely flips worth tracking for investment later.
Highest priority races:
Alabama (defend), Michigan (defend), North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Colorado, Maine
These seven states will likely determine who holds the Senate. Currently, polls have Democrats leading in five (Michigan, Maine, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina). If this holds, we flip the Senate.
I wouldn't get too excited yet - the polls are VERY close and we're very far away from November. Still, the polls do show that it is worth it to be raising money like crazy for these folks and trying to get involved on the ground. I think Greenfield (IA) is in a great position to beat Ernst, and we know Doug Jones is facing a very tough battle with either Sessions or Tuberville.
Stretch the Map races:
Kansas, Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia (special election)
The odds are against us in all four races, but we're close enough that it is definitely worth investing in all of them. Even losing all four we could end up drawing resources from the seven highest priority races above. The Georgia special election is an interesting one - Loeffler turns out to be a very controversial pick by Kemp, and she is being challenged by Doug Collins on the right and Rev. Raphael Warnock on the left. This race is likely to go to run-off in January of 2021.
Less Likely Flips to Watch:
Alaska, Georgia (Perdue), Texas
Al Gross' campaign in Alaska appears to have legs, in terms of fundraising. Alaska is a very small state and has a major independent streak. It's worth seeing if Gross can make headway. Trump is unpopular in Texas, and Cornyn is not well known. Once Hegar can win the nomination (she appears very likely to), maybe Beto will campaign with her. Georgia looks like a red-purple state this cycle - it's still a republican state, but Trump is not polling well and Perdue is also not well known. Dems are fielding strong female contenders against him.